Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.161848 12.487285 13.999865 15.875172 18.168676 20.924763 2.455534e+01
2024-10-20 9.164283 10.688949 12.551241 15.049838 18.408905 22.922977 2.975270e+01
2024-10-27 7.980994 9.548379 11.545593 14.366470 18.412775 24.312412 3.427277e+01
2024-11-03 7.971163 9.839126 12.348846 16.138848 22.079200 31.833634 5.145480e+01
2024-11-10 7.650416 9.654350 12.451606 16.893031 24.358103 37.910654 7.005953e+01
2024-11-17 6.980919 8.909719 11.655879 16.133800 23.954632 39.000136 7.858989e+01
2024-11-24 6.586427 8.514341 11.321798 16.043343 24.675564 42.520236 9.647267e+01
2024-12-01 6.210807 8.111625 10.930630 15.794043 25.036935 45.397679 1.157688e+02
2024-12-08 5.928722 7.822851 10.683923 15.750138 25.777017 49.450231 1.454724e+02
2024-12-15 5.727370 7.638179 10.580576 15.937826 27.023281 55.365815 1.966792e+02
2024-12-22 5.432170 7.289642 10.182397 15.537181 26.921617 57.534571 2.341824e+02
2024-12-29 5.235724 7.081169 9.996560 15.508889 27.649960 62.606358 3.145039e+02
2025-01-05 4.916986 6.676717 9.477178 14.830780 26.844270 62.746342 3.590505e+02
2025-01-12 4.612088 6.279940 8.947654 14.086562 25.769986 61.627814 3.901932e+02
2025-01-19 4.353813 5.944823 8.502759 13.468778 24.912178 61.026876 4.331985e+02
2025-01-26 4.475526 6.222540 9.127423 15.067922 30.086913 88.354673 2.343491e+03
2025-02-02 4.439916 6.239964 9.294428 15.745349 33.067917 111.141343 9.716420e+04
2025-02-09 4.218584 5.937237 8.861347 15.063382 31.854001 109.167097 3.423883e+06
2025-02-16 4.093302 5.789983 8.704412 14.982010 32.491668 119.899133 NaN
2025-02-23 3.957942 5.619479 8.493925 14.757615 32.631129 127.807332 NaN
2025-03-02 3.854819 5.499059 8.369454 14.718075 33.380303 141.932731 NaN
2025-03-09 3.783417 5.429385 8.335784 14.887058 34.904271 166.543675 NaN
2025-03-16 3.653863 5.254054 8.090619 14.526205 34.456878 171.575106 NaN